SiMPL #015 Is it a Coup? And How to Spot One!
Exploring power struggles, coups, and the lessons from Dune—how fiction and reality intersect in shaping our choices and futures.
Through life, you often hear these words tossed around—at the barbershop, while shopping, over dinner, or after a couple of drinks at the bar:
“Did you see what happened in [insert country]? That’s a coup for sure.”
Coming from Latin America, I’ve heard this more times than I can count. Let’s face it: we think we’re experts. With a history of coups in the region, the term gets thrown around as often as political memes on WhatsApp.
This takes me back to mid-2024, when Venezuela held its presidential elections. With strong ties to the country (my wife’s family is Venezuelan), I found myself constantly pulled into conversations about the chaos. And honestly, I love the place—its stunning landscapes, vibrant beaches, cherished family and friends, and yes, its food and coffee. (When ranking countries, food and coffee are serious metrics in my book.)
But there’s one thing I kept hearing: “It’s a coup!” And I’ll admit, it got under my skin. Not because Venezuela isn’t prone to drama—it definitely is—but because, technically, what was happening wasn’t a coup.
The elections weren’t about sudden power grabs or dramatic overthrows; they were a tangled web of propaganda, broken promises, and political division. The government was busy pitching the usual line: “We’re doing fine—just give us more time, and we’ll do even better!” Meanwhile, the opposition had plenty to say about what was wrong but not much about how they’d fix it. They were playing the tired game of “let’s keep the Chávez legacy alive” vs. “we want capitalism back.” It wasn’t a coup—it was a country stuck in a loop, spinning its wheels in the mud of its own politics.
And yet, there I was, fully immersed in the whirlwind of debates—not just because of my personal ties to the country, but also because everyone wanted to dissect it. Family WhatsApp chats turned into battlegrounds. My Venezuelan friends? Oh, they had opinions. Every social media post was a rallying cry, and every conversation at dinner somehow circled back to the same question:
“Do you think it’s a coup?”
Spoiler alert: It wasn’t.
From Overthinking to TikTok-ing
Back then, I tried to make sense of it all the best way I knew how—by writing. I poured hours into an intricate, way-too-detailed article about Venezuela’s geopolitical history, coups versus revolutions, and their ripple effects across Latin America. I thought it was brilliant. My wife? My immediate family? Yeah, they thought it was boring as hell.
“Honey,” my wife said, “why not try something shorter?” (Though, let’s be honest, what she actually said in Spanish was a bit more direct—if you catch my drift).
That’s when the lightbulb clicked. Instead of long essays, I turned to what her sister, brother, and even her father swore by daily—TikTok. I shot quick, one-minute videos explaining the chaos in bite-sized pieces. To my surprise, they blew up.
One day, I woke up to 500,000 views on a video I posted at midnight. By the end of the week, my channel had crossed a million views. And me? I had accidentally stumbled into a niche: breaking down complex political drama in a way people could actually digest.
But Why Are We Talking About This Now?
Fast forward to this week: I was halfway through writing a story about casinos, data prediction, and how they manipulate behavior (don’t worry—that’s coming soon). My wife and I were deciding on a new TV show. The options? The Penguin or Dune: Prophecy. Reluctantly, I picked Dune: Prophecy. Spoiler alert: it was a mistake. My friend Alfredo had hyped it up, but honestly, I hope he was trolling me.
Dune: Prophecy was… not good. Not Rings of Power bad, but still. Save yourself the time. If you’re curious about the story, just read the books. Trust me, they’re worth it.
Earlier that day, while running errands with my wife, we’d been talking about South Korea and their sudden declaration of martial law. Explaining the events to her got me thinking about power struggles, coups, and revolutions. By the time I was settling into the disappointment of Dune: Prophecy that evening, it all clicked—South Korea’s chaos felt like it was ripped from the pages of a political drama.
That evening, while I was still processing the chaos in South Korea and regretting my TV choice, it hit me: power struggles, whether real or fictional, always follow patterns. Be it a Harkonnen coup in Dune or a sudden martial law declaration in Seoul, there’s always a story behind the story.
Wait, Before We Continue, Where Are My Manners… Do You Know What Happened in South Korea?
That same day, South Korea stole the global spotlight with an announcement no one saw coming. President Yoon declared martial law, citing “anti-state forces” as the reason. Chaos erupted overnight—protesters hit the streets, lawmakers rushed to the National Assembly, and yes, one lady even threw herself in front of a military vehicle. (Talk about commitment!)
The goal? Block Yoon’s order before it could take root. And they did. In under six hours, parliament—including members of Yoon’s own party—unanimously overturned the declaration.
But here’s the kicker: this wasn’t just about one night of drama. It was a stark reminder that democracy isn’t something you just set on autopilot. It needs action, vigilance, and sometimes, people willing to lie in front of military trucks.
If you want the long version (and trust me, it’s worth it), we’ve got you covered in the weekly news section with a link to the full story. No worries, we’ve got your back.
What’s in a Coup?
After untangling the drama in South Korea, it felt like the perfect time to explore something I’ve been asked repeatedly: “What’s the difference between a coup and a revolution?”
It’s a question that often pops up whenever political turmoil hits the news. And honestly, it’s an easy mix-up. Both involve power shifts, chaos, and the occasional catchy protest slogan. But trust me, there’s a world of difference between them.
Coup 101: The Basics
A coup d’état, or simply a coup, is French for “blow to the state.” It’s a sudden and illegal seizure of power from a government, usually carried out by a small group, often from within the military or political elite. The emphasis here is on sudden and illegal.
The term itself dates back to 18th-century France, but coups have been part of human history long before that. They’re not revolutions, and they’re certainly not elections—they’re quick, decisive, and often disruptive acts of power.
In other languages, they’re called:
Golpe de Estado (Spanish)
Putsch (German)
Colpo di Stato (Italian)
Whatever the language, the meaning is the same: a power grab that bypasses the usual democratic or legal processes.
Signs of a Coup:
It’s secretive and sudden.
It’s led by a small group—usually military insiders or top government officials.
It doesn’t aim to change the system—just the person or group at the top.
With this framework, it’s easier to see what makes a coup stand out from a revolution, a protest, or just political chaos. But why stop at definitions? Let’s dive into some famous examples.
Famous Coups Through History
History Teacher hat on!….
To illustrate the impact of coups, here’s a quick dive into some famous ones. And just for perspective—there have been 1,367 documented coups in history, according to Wikipedia. While we can’t cover them all (thankfully for you), these notable examples stand out for how they shaped nations and histories.
Chile, 1973: General Pinochet’s military coup ousted President Allende, beginning a dictatorship that defined Chile’s politics for decades.
Thailand, 2014: The military removed Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, marking yet another chapter in Thailand’s history of coups.
Russia, 1917: Lenin’s Bolsheviks staged a well-planned coup, toppling the provisional government and paving the way for Soviet rule.
Spain, 1981: Armed guards stormed parliament in a failed attempt to restore military rule, stopped by King Juan Carlos’s defense of democracy.
Iran, 1953: Backed by British and American intelligence, this coup overthrew Prime Minister Mossadegh, re-establishing the Shah’s rule and altering Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Hat off… lets go back to the fun stuff!!
Did You Know “The Lion King” Is a Story About a Coup?
Yep, you read that right. Pop culture is full of coups disguised as epic tales of betrayal and power grabs. Whether it’s animated lions or intergalactic spice wars, these stories hit all the classic traits of a coup: secrecy, suddenness, and a small group (or one devious uncle) seizing power.
1. The Lion King (1994)
Scar was just playing the cool (but cranky) uncle—lounging, enjoying the perks of being royalty on Pride Rock. And then, boom—he plots his brother’s death and seizes the throne. It’s swift, it’s secretive, and he doesn’t even bother rewriting the “constitution” of the savanna. Classic coup energy, right? Too bad his reign doesn’t last—Simba’s dramatic comeback settles the score.
2. The Dark Knight (2008)
Remember that scene when the Joker strolls in, stacks of cash piled high, and casually sets it ablaze? “It’s not about money—it’s about sending a message,” he sneers, as the flames roar higher. That moment isn’t just cinematic—it’s a coup in action. The Joker dismantles Gotham’s organized crime, flipping the power dynamic overnight.
But this isn’t your average coup—he’s not after control. Instead, he’s rewriting Gotham’s rules, proving that sometimes, a coup isn’t about taking the throne. It’s about blowing it all up (literally).
3. Game of Thrones (2011–2019)
Imagine this: You’re invited to a wedding because your distant cousin is marrying someone who will secure strategic alliances across the realm, giving him the upper hand in a brewing war. It’s all music, wine, and merriment… until it’s not.
Suddenly, pregnant women are stabbed, arrows rain down, and your most loyal ally turns on you. That’s how House Frey and House Bolton played their coup, seizing power from the Starks at The Red Wedding.
It wasn’t just betrayal—it was a masterclass in swift, bloody strategy. Turns out, even wedding invites can be weapons in Westeros.
4. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
Palpatine played the galaxy like a master puppeteer. While the Jedi were scattered across distant battlefronts, he executed Order 66—a swift, synchronized betrayal that wiped out the Jedi Order and transformed the Republic into the Empire. It wasn’t just a coup—it was a galactic masterstroke of power.
5. Dune (2021)
It’s a regular night on Arrakis, and Duke Leto Atreides is asleep, unaware that his trusted allies have betrayed him. By morning, his army is dismantled, his position is gone, and the Harkonnens—backed by the Emperor—have taken over the spice-rich planet in a ruthless power grab. This isn’t just about control of Arrakis; it’s the starting point of Paul Atreides’ rise, as he uses the chaos to ignite a revolution.
Dune’s Power Play: More Than Spice Wars
Frank Herbert’s Dune isn’t just about a desert planet, giant sandworms, or the fight over spice—it’s about power, control, and the stories we tell to justify it all.
Let’s set the scene: the Harkonnens, backed by the Emperor, execute a textbook coup against House Atreides. Their goal? Take over Arrakis, the galaxy’s most valuable resource hub, without rewriting the empire’s structure. It’s swift, ruthless, and devastating.
But here’s the twist: Dune doesn’t stop at the coup. Paul Atreides, stripped of his power and allies, doesn’t just survive—he rewrites the narrative. Aligning himself with the Fremen, Arrakis’ native people, Paul transforms a power grab into a full-scale revolution. His rise isn’t just about reclaiming his position; it’s about reshaping the empire.
Herbert masterfully layers elements like cultural manipulation, psychological strategy, and even predictive analytics into the story. Paul’s prescient abilities allow him to anticipate and influence events, making his struggle not just one of survival, but of systemic change.
Sound familiar? This dynamic of coups evolving into revolutions echoes in real-world history, as we’ve seen in places like Iran and Russia. And in Dune, it’s the foundation of Paul’s transformation from an exiled heir to a revolutionary leader.
What Makes a Coup Happen?
Here’s the thing about coups: they don’t just pop out of nowhere. There’s always a cocktail of underlying conditions that set the stage. Let’s break it down:
1. Economic Instability
When inflation skyrockets, unemployment rises, and the public can barely scrape by, dissatisfaction grows. People start questioning leadership, and unrest bubbles to the surface. Think of it as the perfect storm for a coup to thrive.
2. Political Corruption
When leaders lose the trust of their people—whether through scandals, mismanagement, or outright betrayal—their grip on power weakens. A shaky foundation makes it all too easy for an opportunistic group to step in.
3. Foreign Interference
Outside forces often have a hand in coups, whether by funding opposition groups, providing intelligence, or even deploying resources. It’s less cloak-and-dagger and more “let’s meddle for our own interests.”
Take South Korea’s recent chaos as a modern example. Yoon cited “anti-state forces” linked to North Korea to justify his martial law move. Whether true or not, it underscores how external pressures can create internal fractures.
But Dune? Herbert took these real-world factors and dialed them up to galactic proportions. The Emperor’s betrayal, House Harkonnen’s greed, and Arrakis’ precarious balance of power all contributed to the coup against the Atreides.
Again, why Are We Talking About This Now?
Here’s where it all ties together. Whether it’s South Korea, Dune, or the countless historical coups we’ve seen, the dynamics remain eerily similar. Economic pressure, distrust, and opportunism create fertile ground for upheaval.
But Dune goes deeper, weaving in themes of data prediction and psychological manipulation—concepts that feel increasingly relevant in today’s world of algorithms and behavioral tracking. And that’s where we’re headed next week.
We’ll dive into how data is used to influence behavior (think casinos and those addictive “free spins”), and what Paul Atreides’ mastery of prediction has to teach us about the world we live in.
For now, I’ll leave you with this: coups, revolutions, and rebellions aren’t just about power—they’re about the stories we tell ourselves about who we are and what we deserve.
Deducing Power Shifts: What Would Sherlock Do?
When chaos strikes, it’s easy to panic—but let’s take a page from Sherlock Holmes. (Imagine me smoking a pipe while saying this!) Remember his mantra? “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” Democracies have mechanisms to safeguard themselves against coups, but those safeguards rely on vigilance and action.
Take South Korea: it wasn’t just the lawmakers’ quick thinking that overturned martial law; it was the collective effort of citizens, officials, and, yes, even the odd barricade. Or look at France’s no-confidence vote—while chaotic, it’s still a democratic process, a valve for releasing pressure before things boil over.
Now, imagine if your democracy were as fragile as Arrakis in Dune. What if power hinged on a single betrayal or an Emperor’s whim? No safety nets, no checks and balances—just a knife at the throat and a desert full of enemies.
Frank Herbert’s universe might feel far away, but its lessons hit close to home. Democracies aren’t fragile by nature, but they require constant care. It’s not just about the systems; it’s about the people in them. When vigilance falters, even the most stable structures can crumble.
Joel’s Quick Guide to Detecting a Coup
Sherlock Holmes wouldn’t jump to conclusions, and neither should we. Use this checklist to deduce if what you’re seeing is a coup:
Suddenness: Did this shift in power come out of nowhere? Coups are swift and unexpected.
Secrecy: Was it planned and executed in secret? Transparency isn’t a coup’s style.
Small Group: Was it carried out by a select few, like military leaders or political insiders? Coups rarely involve the masses.
No System Overhaul: Is the goal to replace the leader, not the entire political system? That’s coup 101.
Illegality: Was the power grab outside legal or democratic frameworks? This one’s a dead giveaway.
When in doubt, ask yourself: does it tick most of these boxes? If yes, you’re likely looking at a coup.
Before we close this newsletter, let me tease what’s coming next: we’ll explore the world of data prediction, casinos, and behavior manipulation, and dive into the question: Is Democracy an ancient AI?
And speaking of foresight, the next sign you should pick up is Dune. It’s more than a sci-fi story; it’s a masterclass in power, strategy, and resilience.
Let’s get into the book recommendation.
Book Recommendation: Dune by Frank Herbert
Let me take you back to my childhood in Panama. It was the ’90s, and I was the kind of kid who loved watching TV shows in their original language—whether I understood them or not. One day, flipping through channels, I stumbled upon Dune, the 1984 movie adaptation. Between the odd visuals and the confusing plot, I remember thinking, “What is this?” I wasn’t hooked, but it stayed in the back of my mind.
Fast forward a few decades, and I’m in the UK. A friend casually drops this bomb: “You know Star Wars is just a Dune ripoff, right?” Excuse me? As a die-hard Star Wars fan, my world shook. How could George Lucas have “borrowed” so much from this one story? Intrigued, I filed it away but didn’t act on it.
Years later, during the pandemic, I found myself with time on my hands and a stack of books to get through. After finishing everything Tolkien, Gabriel García Márquez, and even Game of Thrones, I decided to give Dune a shot. And wow, was I in for a ride.
Reading Dune felt like unlocking a universe I didn’t even know I needed. Herbert’s story spans over 16,000 years, with planets ruled like medieval fiefdoms and a desert planet that holds the galaxy’s most coveted resource: spice. The story follows Paul Atreides, a young noble thrust into betrayal, survival, and an empire-shaking revolution.
But here’s the kicker: Dune isn’t just about giant sandworms or intergalactic politics (though those are cool). It’s about power—who wields it, who fears it, and how it shifts in ways you don’t see coming. Paul’s journey isn’t just about survival; it’s about reshaping the galaxy, all while grappling with the weight of destiny and the consequences of his actions.
Herbert didn’t pull this story out of thin air. In the late ’50s, he was assigned to write a magazine article about sand dunes in Oregon. The article never got published, but the experience sparked an idea. What if a desert wasn’t just barren but alive, shaping its people and their culture? Herbert dug deep into ecology, human behavior, and even historical power struggles to build the universe of Dune.
For me, Dune was more than a sci-fi epic—it was a revelation. The themes of ecological balance, political intrigue, and cultural resilience felt incredibly relevant, even today. And let’s not forget the spice: both a metaphor for addiction and the literal key to intergalactic travel.
If you’ve seen Denis Villeneuve’s Dune adaptation, you’ve had a taste of the story. But the book goes so much deeper, exploring the nuances of Paul’s transformation, the mysticism of the Fremen, and the sheer weight of wielding power.
So, if you’re looking for a story that’s as layered as it is thrilling, grab a copy of Dune. It’s not just a book—it’s an experience. Just be warned: once you step onto Arrakis, you might not want to leave.